Understanding the relationship between social media and politics

Have you noticed that in the 2018 election period the talk about voting is stronger than ever? Well, this feeling is not free or fictional.

First of all, it is because some believe that it is the most important election in the history of Mexico since 1910 when Porfirio Díaz ascended to power. This is because, in addition to electing president, there will be a change of governors, head of government in Mexico City, mayors, governings, councilors, municipal councils, senators, syndicates and local and federal deputies: there are 18,311 public positions, this is the first time that so many are chosen in one day.

Likewise, it has the largest nominal list in history: 89 million people. There will also be a record budget: 33,000 million pesos.

But this does not end here: in 2018, 12 million young people will vote for the first time, they are the so-called "millennials" and most of them don't have a defined political preference, and are also the most active in social media.

To this last and important aspect we will dedicate this article: what is the influence of social media and the digital age in general in elections? Will these be the ones that decide the fate of the elections and, therefore, of all of Mexico? Does technology facilitate or hinder the election?

The digital age, the millennials and their influence on the elections.

As we mentioned earlier, millennials will be a prevailing group in the 2018 elections, but it would be very reckless to say that they will define the result. The reason? Because of their coldness and abstention, which gives opportunity to other groups, such as those over 40, to have the last word.

Millennials are torn between their progressive, anti-racist and disruptive ideals and their carefree and hedonistic attitude. For example, they say they are committed to the environment, but not all of them stop buying products that, although they diminish their comfort, are less harmful to the environment. They say they are against Brexit, but when they have to vote, they do not go. They said they would support Hillary Clinton, but Trump ended up winning. In 2012 they said they were "132", but PRI won again.

It would be a mistake to say that all millennials are conformist or contradictory, but there are many who express their disagreements and dislikes in social media, while at the "eleven hours" of making decisions, do nothing or are weak. Could it be that millennials will learn from their mistakes this year?

In 2018, the millennials who voted in 2012 are now more "seniors", while many younger millennials will vote for the first time, having a bad perception of the government and taking into account the mistakes of their predecessors.

Given that social networks are the environment in which millennials and other population groups are informed, entertained and debate, this is where many aspects of the election be at play. What young people have expressed in social media is that they are in favor of breaking up and when they turn that "philosophy" into actions, then all their tweets and posts become determinants for any election.

The new ways of monitoring democracy.

In the last century, the only way in which the results of an election could be anticipated were surveys, but these (as now) turned out to be too debatable. Today, technological tools not only allow us to anticipate results, but they even do so transparently and with real data obtained through people's posts. On the other hand, we also have identified the elements that add "noise" to the conversation, the famous "bots" and other strategies like that. In other words, both the tools that contribute and blur the electoral process in social media are identified and ready for candidates to use.

Therefore, social media are not only tools to predict the voting outcome, but also political tools to contribute to victory: in the 2008 US elections, networks such as Facebook, MySpace, YouTube and Twitter were used by candidates to get financing for their campaigns, identify their electors, create electoral coalitions and keep people in touch with the electoral process. Those were, according to experts, the "central nervous system" of the campaigns.

Based on this claim, the analysts made some predictions for the 2012 election:

1. The future political effectiveness will be based on social media because that is where the "trust filters" operate.
2. Admittedly, the campaigns no longer set the tone for the electoral talks, but the networks.
3. Facebook comments will be the setting for debates between candidates and citizens and, above all, only among citizens.
4. The networks will create virtual opportunities for the electors to give their points of view and deliberate their vote.
5. Comments from social networks will be covered and used by the news.
6. Networks will be used to persuade directly.
7. Networks will increase civic education for political action and the confidence of the electors.
8. The information diversity dissemination and its exposure through social media will be improved.
9. New opportunities will be created to increase engagement through mobile communications.
10. Geolocation and behavioral advertising will allow activists to reach people effectively and efficiently.

If we put all the above in the 2018 Mexican election, we will see that the prophecies are being fulfilled and that their consequences will add one more factor to say that these are the most important elections in history since 1910.

We must add that politicians are granting interviews by trend Youtubers and that send all kinds of messages to the electors through WhatsApp. Let's not forget the fact that "Internet-based social media have made it clear that there is no longer a total concentration of knowledge in just a few hands, as it happened in the past" (Vega and Merino, 2011, p.21).